Global Risks Report 2025: A Sobering Reminder of the Challenges ahead
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CA’s CEO Prof Patrick Verkooijen will be joining global leaders in Davos this week to keep climate adaptation front and centre of discussions. We have crunched the World Economic Forum’s influential annual Global Risks Report for you to get the full picture in just minutes.
Climate Change: The Defining Challenge of Our Time
Environmental issues take center stage in the 2025 Global Risks Report, reflecting their profound impact on our collective future. With 2024 recognized as the hottest year on record, driven by severe weather events, its no surprise that climate-related risks continue to dominate global concerns. Extreme weather events are ranked as the second-highest risk in the 2-year outlook and the top risk over the next decade. Stakeholders across all groups identify this as a critical concern, with younger generations and civil society voices éxpressing the greatest alarm.
Other environmental risks, such as pollution and biodiversity loss, also emerge as significant threats. While pollution ranks higher in the short term, the potential for biodiversity collapse is viewed as a more profound challenge over the longer horizon.
State-Based Armed Conflict: The Top Immediate Threat
One of the most striking developments in this year’s report is the ascension of state-based armed conflict as the most immediate global risk. Just two years ago, this issue was not considered a major threat, but it now dominates the 2025 outlook. This shift underscores the volatile geopolitical environment of recent years, with heightened tensions and ongoing conflicts, such as those in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Sudan, fueling global unease.
Rising Pessimism About the Future
The survey reveals a growing pessimism among respondents regarding the near-term outlook. Over half (52%) of those surveyed between September and October 2024 foresee some level of instability in the next two years. Alarmingly, an additional 31% anticipate significant turbulence, while 5% predict global catastrophic risks during this period. These figures represent an overall increase in negative sentiment compared to last year.
Looking further ahead, nearly two-thirds (62%) of respondents expect a turbulent or stormy decade, highlighting the deep-seated uncertainties permeating global discourse.
Economic Risks Recede but Persist
Despite sluggish global growth in 2024, economic risks have declined in prominence within the 2-year risk rankings. Inflation, which dominated global discourse during 2022-2023, has eased, with projections suggesting a decline to 3.5% by the end of 2024. However, concerns about economic downturns persist, rising to the sixth position in the current risk landscape.
Fragmentation and Polarization Shape Societal Risks
A world increasingly marked by political divisions and protectionist policies has heightened societal fragmentation. Misinformation and societal polarization rank fourth and fifth among current risks, with the severity of misinformation escalating year-on-year. These dynamics not only challenge trust within societies but also strain international relations.
Emerging Technological Risks
The mainstreaming of artificial intelligence (AI) in 2024 brings both promise and peril. While concerns about the adverse outcomes of AI technologies rank lower in the short term, they are expected to grow significantly, appearing as the sixth-most critical risk over the next decade. Meanwhile, cyber espionage and warfare, exacerbated by geopolitical fragmentation, rank fifth in the 2-year outlook.
Conclusion: A Call for Collaborative Action
The 2025 Global Risks Report underscores the interconnected nature of modern challenges. From environmental degradation to geopolitical instability and societal fragmentation, the risks we face require coordinated, multi-stakeholder responses. Only through global collaboration can we navigate the complex uncertainties of our time and work toward a more resilient future.
The ideas presented in this article aim to inspire adaptation action – they are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Global Center on Adaptation.
