Water as an Enabler for Scaling up Adaptation

From unpredictable rainfall to shrinking glaciers, rising sea levels, intensified and frequent floods, storms and droughts- climate change is fundamentally a water crisis. With 75% of all disasters being water-related—whether too much, too little or too dirty—water is the primary medium through which we experience climate change.

W ater is also central to addressing the climate challenge and building resilience as ~60% of adaptation solutions are linked to it. Yet water remains undervalued and poorly managed and receives little attention in climate policies.

As we mark World Water Day, it’s therefore critical to understand the interplay between water and climate, and to mobilise resources to take urgent action. The Global Center on Adaptation (GCA) is at the forefront of addressing this connection, working as a solutions broker for adaptation. Through its efforts, GCA is driving initiatives that leverage water’s potential to accelerate and scale up climate adaptation.
 
Climate Change and Water: The Challenge for Global Economic Development
Climate change disrupts the water cycle—altering precipitation patterns, river flows, and groundwater recharge. These shifts cascade across sectors, threatening food security, public health, livelihoods, ecosystems, and energy production.

The combination of climate change, increased water demand due to development, and rapid urbanization could lead to water scarcity for 3 billion people by 2050 if temperatures rise by 2°C above pre-industrial levels. In 2020 alone, floods and storms displaced 29 million people worldwide. By 2050, some regions might become uninhabitable due to excessive heat, dryness, or frequent flooding.

The economic impacts of climate change are profound and escalating. Between 1993 and 2022, extreme weather events caused global economic losses totalling $4.2 trillion.  By 2050, annual global damages due to climate change are projected to rise to $38 trillion,. This is largely driven by shifts in precipitation patterns, and rising temperatures, which are already threatening economies worldwide. 
The human and economic costs of inaction will also be substantial. The Global Commission on Economics of Water projects that high-income countries could see an 8% decline in GDP by 2050, while lower-income nations may face even more severe economic challenges, with GDP reductions ranging from 10% to 15%.  

Vulnerable groups, such as women and girls, indigenous communities, and the poorest segments of society, will bear the brunt of these impacts.
 
Leveraging Water for Climate Resilience
Managing water effectively is an essential part of adapting to climate change. As the frequency, scale and impacts of extreme events such as floods, storms and droughts become more uncertain, the past is no longer a reliable predictor of the future. As such, water managers and policymakers should adopt collaborative, evidence-based approaches—integrating risk modelling, indigenous knowledge, and lived experience—to anticipate changes in water availability and distribution.

One way to achieve this is by adopting water management practices and infrastructure designs that are both flexible and robust which could ensure functionality across a range of climatic projections while allowing for modifications as conditions evolve. Equally important is shifting from traditional, static ‘fail-safe’ approaches to ‘safe-to-fail’ practices. This can be accomplished by integrating nature-based or hybrid grey-green solutions, which not only enhance resilience to extreme events but also provide co-benefits such as improved ecosystem services.”

For instance, mangroves in Bangladesh protect coastal embankments during storms while supporting local livelihoods. Similarly, the Netherlands’ “Room for the River” initiative mitigates floods by creating space for rivers while preserving urban infrastructure and economic activity.

Strengthening institutional capacities and raising awareness are also essential for developing climate sensitive policies and planning, and ensuring their effective implementation. Strong institutions can explore innovative avenues to improve water management, such as leveraging climate smart irrigation techniques or enhancing water treatment processes to reduce emissions.

It is equally important to ensure that resilience building solutions are not merely replicated from elsewhere, but are tailored to the specific contexts of each region. This can be achieved by engaging local communities and stakeholders to ensure solutions are informed by the unique cultural, political, socioeconomic, and geographical contexts and knowledge of each region. Failure to consider these factors can result in maladaptation, exacerbating vulnerabilities instead of addressing them.
 
Bridging the Adaptation Investment Gap
As the impacts of climate change continue to intensify, investing in climate adaptation has become not only an environmental necessity but also a sound economic strategy. On average, every US$1 invested in adaptation generates a net economic benefit of $2–$10. For example: In Sub-Saharan Africa, the cost of investing in water management for agriculture and food systems (e.g. irrigation technologies, drought and flood resilient seeds, improving weather forecasts) is less than a tenth of the cost of inaction: US$6 billion compared to US$90 billion. 

The return on adaptation investments $1.8 trillion globally from 2020 to 2030 could generate $7.1 trillion in total net benefits. Despite such compelling case for investment, there is wide gap in investments for adaptation. For example, Africa requires approximately $580 billion in adaptation finance between 2020 and 2030. However, without a significant increase in funding, the continent could face a financing shortfall of $453 billion by the end of the decade.

Recognizing the urgent need to scale up adaptation and increase investments, GCA, through the Africa Adaptation Acceleration Program (AAAP), has been driving climate adaptation efforts across Africa by influencing $13 billion of investments over the past 4 years. By integrating climate risk considerations within the investment projects of multilateral development banks, bi-lateral donors and private enterprises, GCA ensures that projects are more climate-resilient. For instance, in Ethiopia, GCA supported the African Development Bank’s (AfDB) Borana Resilient Water Development Program. This involved identifying climate risks, engaging communities, conducting gender vulnerability assessments, and recommending adaptation measures to strengthen water infrastructure. Such technical support also enabled the project to access additional financing from the AfDB’s climate action window to implement the identified adaptation solutions.
 
Climate Action in an Uncertain World
As the world grapples with an impending political and financial crisis that is diverting attention and resources from urgent climate action, we must not lose sight of the critical role water plays in climate adaptation. By prioritizing investments in climate resilient water resource management, we can work towards a more sustainable and economically viable future. As we celebrate World Water Day, it is therefore essential to capitalise the intricate relationship between water and climate.

The ideas presented in this article aim to inspire adaptation action – they are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Global Center on Adaptation.

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