What to Expect in Climate Change in 2025: Opportunities Amid Challenges
T
his decade began with real optimism—COP26 in Glasgow (2021) brought pledges to phase down coal and reduce fossil fuel subsidies, spurred by the temporary dip in global emissions during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, that momentum has since been challenged by shifting priorities and mounting geopolitical crises.
The Shifting Climate Landscape
The return to pre-pandemic economic activity, coupled with global conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Sudan, has diverted attention and resources away from urgent climate action. These crises have deepened economic uncertainty and overshadowed the climate emergency.
Yet, 2025 is not without its bright spots. Technological advancements in carbon capture, green hydrogen, and battery storage hold promise for achieving key climate goals. These innovations could help bridge the gap between ambitious targets and practical implementation.
Justice for Vulnerable Nations
Developing countries continue to face the harshest impacts of climate change, despite contributing minimally to global greenhouse gas emissions. From rising sea levels to intensified weather events, the inequality is stark. This year, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) will issue a landmark advisory opinion on whether historically high-emitting nations are legally obligated to ensure the resilience of the global climate system. Led by Vanuatu and other vulnerable nations, this initiative could pave the way for a framework addressing climate inequalities.
Financing for the Future
COP29 in 2024 fell short of delivering transformative outcomes but underscored critical disparities in access to climate mitigation and adaptation resources. Developing nations face not only financial and technological barriers but also competing priorities like poverty reduction.
To address these inequities, climate finance innovations such as debt-for-nature swaps are gaining traction, creating fiscal space for low-income countries to invest in resilience. The New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) on Climate Finance, established at COP29, aims to deliver $300 billion annually to developing nations by 2035—a step forward, albeit insufficient compared to the trillions required.
The Loss and Damage Fund (LDF), set to begin operations this year, will provide financial assistance to help vulnerable countries recover from climate-induced disasters. Additionally, June’s Financing for Development Conference in Spain presents a once-in-a-decade opportunity to overhaul the international financial system. Discussions will explore solutions like green taxation, carbon pricing, and subsidy reforms.
The Road to COP30
The highlight of 2025 will undoubtedly be COP30, hosted in the Amazon Basin of Brazil—a symbolic venue evoking the early days of global environmental action. The location harkens back to the 1992 Rio Earth Summit, which produced three foundational treaties on climate change, biodiversity, and desertification. COP30 offers a chance to renew commitments and spotlight the Amazon’s crucial role in global climate stability.
A Mixed Outlook
As we stand at the midpoint of the decade, the global climate agenda reflects a landscape of contrasts—persistent inequalities, promising innovations, and incremental progress. The world faces an urgent need for transformative action to meet the Paris Agreement targets and support the most vulnerable nations.
2025 is poised to be a pivotal year for climate justice, financing, and international cooperation. While challenges remain, the decisions made this year could shape the trajectory of climate action for decades to come.
The ideas presented in this article aim to inspire adaptation action – they are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Global Center on Adaptation.
