New CPI–GCA analysis warns Africa’s adaptation finance is rising—but still a fraction of what’s needed as ODA declines and debt risks mount
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ddis Ababa, Ethiopia, 10 September 2025 — The Global Center on Adaptation (GCA) today released Adaptation Finance Flows to Africa – State and Future Trends, produced with the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI). The technical brief finds adaptation finance to Africa more than doubled from USD 6.3 billion in 2017 to USD 14.8 billion in 2023, yet remains far below needs—estimated at USD 70 billion per year based on African NDCs, a figure likely understated by up to 100 percent. Without corrective action, climate damages could cost up to 20 percent of Africa’s GDP by 2050 and 64–80 percent by 2100.
The analysis shows that, even as volumes rise, the gap is widening. Roughly nine-tenths of tracked adaptation finance continues to come from international public sources at a time when official development assistance (ODA) is under pressure. Net bilateral ODA to Africa fell from 2023 to 2024, and Sub-Saharan Africa faces a projected decline in 2025, with several major donors cutting budgets. At the same time, just over half of adaptation commitments between 2017 and 2023 were extended as loans, adding to debt burdens in countries already penalized by climate vulnerability through higher borrowing costs. Private capital remains largely absent, contributing only a small single-digit share—much of it philanthropic—with a striking imbalance between international and domestic sources. Geographically, Eastern and Western Africa received the highest volumes in 2023 while Central Africa lagged. Funding is concentrated in AFOLU, policy and budget support, water and wastewater, transport, and disaster risk management, leaving critical gaps in climate-resilient infrastructure across energy, industry, buildings, and urban systems. Looking ahead, the report outlines two plausible trajectories: a low-upside path in which fiscal ring-fences erode and emergency response crowds out proactive resilience action, and a high-upside path in which climate budgets are protected, adaptation becomes bankable, the cost of capital falls, and resilience is embedded across development finance.
Macky Sall, Fourth President of Senegal and Chair of the Global Center on Adaptation, said: “This is a wake-up call. Africa did not cause the climate crisis, yet we are paying the highest price. The projected ODA cuts from major donors would be unprecedented—and unacceptable—precisely when resilience spending must rise. We call on partners to reverse planned reductions, ring-fence adaptation within aid budgets, and expand guarantees and local-currency facilities so countries can scale resilient infrastructure without piling on unsustainable debt. Partnership means staying the course and financing results Africa can deliver at speed and scale.”
Professor Patrick V. Verkooijen, President and CEO of the Global Center on Adaptation, said: “We must prioritize quality and bankability: de-risk climate-resilient projects, crowd in private investors, and align every development dollar with resilience. With a second phase of the Africa Adaptation Acceleration Program we can move from uncertainty to investment-grade projects across food, water, cities and infrastructure. The economics are clear: investing in adaptation today costs far less than paying for climate damage tomorrow.”
The technical brief urges immediate action on four fronts. First, protect and expand adaptation allocations within ODA and multilateral windows so resilience spending is not sacrificed to short-term fiscal pressures. Second, rebalance the financing mix toward concessional instruments, guarantees, and risk-sharing facilities that lower the cost of capital and avert debt distress. Third, build national readiness—clear mandates, credible plans, and strong project pipelines—so countries can absorb finance at scale and deliver results. Fourth, mobilize private participation by making adaptation solutions investable and measurable, particularly in climate-resilient infrastructure where needs and opportunities are largest.
