Are Nature-Based Solutions the Key to Adapting Under Uncertainty?

C limate change doesn’t come with a neat instruction manual. We know the planet is warming—but exactly how, where, and when impacts will hit hardest is still uncertain. Rainfall patterns are shifting. Heatwaves are intensifying. Coastlines are changing. And communities everywhere are being asked to make long-term decisions without perfect information. 
 
So how do we adapt when the future is unclear? One answer gaining momentum is Nature-Based Solutions (NbS)—working with nature rather than trying to engineer our way out of every problem. 
 
In simple terms, Nature-Based Solutions use healthy ecosystems to tackle real-world challenges. Think restoring mangroves to protect coastlines, creating wetlands to absorb floods, or adding green spaces to cool overheated cities. 
 
What makes NbS different from traditional “grey” infrastructure (like concrete flood walls or drainage pipes) is that they’re multifunctional. A mangrove forest doesn’t just reduce storm surge—it also supports fisheries, stores carbon, boosts biodiversity, and strengthens local livelihoods. That ability to deliver multiple benefits at once is exactly why NbS shine in an uncertain world. 
 
Even with the best climate models, we can’t precisely predict future conditions at the local level. Ecosystems respond in complex ways. Human behavior adds another layer of unpredictability. The result? There will always be uncertainty. 
 
Rather than seeing this as a reason to delay action, it’s a reason to choose solutions that are flexible, adaptable, and low-risk. That’s where NbS come in. 
 
Five ways Nature-Based Solutions help us adapt under uncertainty 
Researchers studying adaptation under uncertainty have identified practical strategies that work even when the future is fuzzy. NbS align remarkably well with these approaches. 
 
1. No-regret actions 
Some choices pay off no matter what happens next. Restoring mangroves is a classic example. Even if storms don’t intensify as expected, mangroves still improve fisheries, enhance biodiversity, and store carbon. NbS almost always deliver benefits today, not just in future climate scenarios—making them smart investments even if projections change. 
 
2. Built-in flexibility 
Concrete is hard to move. Nature is not. Unlike permanent engineered structures, many NbS can be adjusted over time. Floating wetlands can be redesigned. Urban green spaces can be expanded. Vegetation choices can change as conditions evolve. This flexibility allows cities and communities to learn, adapt, and improve—rather than being locked into a single solution. 
 
3. Extra safety, without huge costs 
Nature works best in layers. Combining multiple NbS—or pairing them with existing infrastructure—creates backup protection. Wetlands alongside levees. Green corridors combined with permeable pavements. If one measure underperforms, others still reduce the impact. This layered approach builds resilience without the high price tag of over-engineering. 
 
4. Smarter policies, not just bigger projects 
Not all adaptation needs bulldozers. NbS fit naturally with “soft” strategies like planning rules, incentives, and behavioral nudges. Policies that reward ecosystem restoration, reduce intensive mowing in parks, or encourage nature-positive land use can quietly reshape decisions at scale—often with minimal cost and immediate benefits. 
 
5. Smaller steps, better decisions 
Big, irreversible projects can be risky when the future is uncertain. NbS allow cities to act incrementally. The “sponge city” approach is a great example: instead of building massive drainage systems all at once, cities add green spaces, wetlands, and permeable surfaces over time. Each step reduces flood risk—and future steps can adapt as conditions change. 
 
NbS aren’t perfect. Poorly designed projects can create trade-offs, shift risks elsewhere, or even make communities more vulnerable. That’s why adaptive management, monitoring, and learning over time are essential. But waiting for total certainty isn’t an option. Delaying action carries its own risks—and costs. 
 
Nature-Based Solutions don’t promise a silver bullet. What they offer is something far more valuable in an uncertain world: flexibility, resilience, and benefits that start now. 
And in a future we can’t fully predict, that may be exactly what we need. 

The ideas presented in this article aim to inspire adaptation action – they are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Global Center on Adaptation.

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