Adaptation Is a Security Imperative for Africa — and the World, GCA New Report Highlights 

M unich, 15 February 2026 – The Global Center on Adaptation (GCA) today launched a new report on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference warning that more frequent droughts, floods, and prolonged water stress are strengthening patterns of instability and conflict across the Sahel and the Horn of Africa, highlighting implications for international peace and security. This report arrives at a pivotal moment, making a compelling case for a new approach where a portion of global security-related expenditure—especially within alliances like NATO—is directed toward climate adaptation in fragile regions of Africa. As leaders meet in Munich to discuss pressing global security challenges, the findings of the report underscore that climate adaptation in fragile and conflict-affected regions is no longer a peripheral development issue, but a core requirement for global peace, stability, and resilience.   
  
The report by GCA and Bodhi Global Analysis titled Climate Adaptation and Security in the Sahel and Horn of Africa, which presents statistical evidence that droughts, floods and extreme rainfall, when coupled with weak governance and high vulnerability, can be associated with higher conflict incidence across the two regions. The report shows that adaptation investments reduce insecurity by strengthening coping capacity, stabilizing livelihoods and reinforcing local institutions. 
  
Drawing on multi-year datasets, spatial mapping and principal component regression, the report identifies floods and droughts as the climate hazards most consistently linked to conflict incidents. Areas with higher numbers of people in need, larger rural populations and weaker coping capacity are more prone to conflict. By contrast, adaptation-related investments—such as resilient infrastructure, climate-smart livelihoods and improved water governance— can lead to reductions in insecurity. Locally led adaptation initiatives in Mauritania, Niger, Kenya and Somalia demonstrate clear peace dividends when they are inclusive and rooted in community governance, offering actionable models for peace-focused climate action that prioritizes social cohesion. 
  
Commenting on the report’s findings, H.E. Macky Sall, Chair of GCA and 4th President of Senegal, said: “Water insecurity and climate fragility are no longer environmental concerns — they are defining security challenges of our time. Across the Sahel and the Horn of Africa, communities are on the frontlines of drought, displacement and instability worsened by climate risk. This report makes one thing clear: investing in climate adaptation is investing in peace and security. Supporting Africa on adaptation strengthens stability far beyond our continent.” 
  
Professor Patrick V. Verkooijen, President and CEO of GCA, said: “The evidence is clear: adaptation works. It lowers conflict risk, strengthens institutions and protects hard-won development gains. In fragile regions, climate adaptation is not charity — it is strategic risk management. Every dollar invested in resilience today reduces costs tomorrow. If we are serious about global security, adaptation must move from the margins to the center of strategic decision-making. In conflict prone developing regions like the Sahel and Horn of Africa, adaptation is a bone fide security related investment.” 
  
The report warns that underinvestment in adaptation in Africa risks amplifying international security threats, including rising displacement, heightened competition for scarce natural resources, disrupted trade routes and the expansion of ungoverned spaces vulnerable to extremist groups. Nearly 300 million people worldwide require humanitarian assistance due to conflicts and climate shocks, including more than 65 million in West and Central Africa. 
  
Examples from the report show how adaptation can act as preventive security. Community water management systems in Mauritania and Niger have reduced local tensions; flood-control and water governance investments in Somalia’s Jowhar Off-Stream Storage Programme have created “peace corridors”; rangeland co-management in Kenya’s Laikipia County has lowered cattle-raiding; and women- and youth-led adaptation initiatives across Mali, Mauritania and the Lake Chad Basin have strengthened livelihoods and reduced recruitment into armed groups. 
  
The report concludes with five priority actions: integrate governance and stability into adaptation planning and measurement; finance local coordination and governance systems alongside infrastructure; scale up locally led adaptation that strengthens social cohesion; invest in regional early warning systems and cross-border resilience corridors; and develop new tools to track the peace and governance benefits of adaptation. 

About the Global Center on Adaptation
The Global Center on Adaptation (GCA) is an international organization that promotes adaptation to the impacts of climate change. It works to climate-proof development by instigating policy reforms and influencing investments made by international financial institutions and the private sector. The goal is to bring climate adaptation to the forefront of the global fight against climate change and ensure that it remains prominent. Founded in 2018, GCA is the first international organization to maintain dual headquarters in both the Global North in Rotterdam and in the Global South in Nairobi – underscoring the equal partnership between regions and the conviction that climate adaptation solutions must be co-designed and co-owned. Its regional hubs in Abidjan, Dhaka and Beijing, leverage local expertise to pilot and scale context-specific approaches. Together, these centers ensure a continuous, two-way exchange of knowledge and best practices that empower communities and drive resilient and inclusive growth worldwide.

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