Tanzania Burundi Railway

Adaptation Need

The railway corridor crosses areas highly exposed to extreme heat, flooding, and landslides. Without adaptation, these hazards are likely to disrupt operations, damage assets, and trigger major socio-economic losses. GCA’s analysis found that current designs could face up to 167 temperature-induced faults annually, resulting in 37 disruption days, $165 million in economic losses, and $21 million in lost revenue for the Tanzania Railways Corporation. Additionally, 23 km of track are vulnerable to flooding during a 1-in-50-year rainfall event, and 21 km—mostly in Gitega and Rutana—are at high risk of landslides. Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), average maximum temperatures could rise by up to 6°C by 2100. In Gitega, a 100-year rainfall event could occur every 43 years by 2080, significantly increasing climate-related disruption.

GCA’s Added Value

Between Q1 2024 and Q1 2025, GCA supported AfDB and national counterparts in assessing climate risks and identifying adaptation priorities. This included climate hazard modeling, asset vulnerability stress tests, and cost-benefit analysis of resilience measures. The work focused on both grey and nature-based solutions (NbS), with technical guidance provided to integrate these into detailed design and O&M plans. GCA also developed a climate finance rationale to help AfDB access concessional adaptation funding and strengthen the project’s long-term sustainability.