To keep people fed, vulnerable areas need better forecasts
Food security will be one of climate change’s biggest casualties – and it’s the world’s poorest regions that will be worst affected. Here’s how improving weather forecasts could play a big role in lessening its effects.
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ne of the cruellest aspects of climate change, like Covid, is that its effects will be felt most keenly by those living in the world’s poorest regions.To put it another way, the areas most in need of climate adaptation measures are those least able to afford them – and one of the biggest challenges this presents is its threat to food security.
More than 80% of those people classified as food-insecure – that is, who do not have reliable access to affordable and nutritious food – live in regions that are regularly hit by storms, floods and droughts, and climate change is already making these extreme weather events both more frequent and more destructive. As the NAO underlined in a 2008 report, climate change will negatively affect every aspect of food systems, from production and distribution networks to the overall stability of the systems themselves.
One of the best tools for limiting the damage is information. Given advance warning of an impending flood or storm, for example, farmers and the other stakeholders in the food production system can take action to mitigate the worst effects; just 24 hours’ warning of a coming heatwave or storm can reduce losses by up to 30%.
But when it comes to effective and timely provision of weather information, some of the poorest parts of the world are suffering from large gaps in forecasting capacity, according to the World Meteorological Organisation’s (WMO) inaugural 2019 State of Climate Services report. It found that the gaps in capacity are greatest in Africa, Asia and South America: “Developing countries, small island developing states (SIDS) and least-developed countries (LDC) in particular highlighted data, observing networks and forecasting as the top priority climate services-related needs to be addressed,” the report states.
Better decision-making
Africa and the SIDS are hampered in particular by two factors: first, a lack of local climate reporting systems, and secondly what the report describes as a “significant gap” in getting the right meteorological information to farmers and communities living in rural areas – so-called ‘last mile delivery’.
“If climate and weather information is available but not used effectively, their value is lost,” the report states – and it also cites two programmes that seek to address this challenge.
Forecasts help farmers secure the harvest. Photo by Pexels
The first uses an existing network, the FAO’s Farmer Field School (FFS) programme, to disseminate timely forecasting information. FFS has been in operation since 1989, and up to 1 million farmers in 90 countries access it yearly. Part of its remit today is to help farmers become more resilient to climate change, which involves improving local analysis of weather patterns, measuring rainfall and temperature, and using information provided by meteorological centres to help farmers respond to extreme weather faster and more effectively.
The second programme cited – Forecast-based Financing, which is run by the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) – uses in-depth forecast information and risk analysis to anticipate disasters and – crucially – to unlock funding in time for those living in affected areas to take preventative action.
In 2014, meanwhile, the WMO launched its own project, the Global Framework for Climate Services in Africa, which is helping develop user-driven climate services in Malawi and Tanzania in an effort to reduce the impact of extreme weather events on food security, livelihoods and health.
Ten for one
As is the case with so many climate resilience efforts, there is a huge financial imperative in improving access to climate services in the developing world. A WMO’s report estimated that improved climate observations and weather forecasts could boost global productivity by up to $30 billion annually, and any investments will have a benefit-cost ratio of 10-1 or more.
That depends on swift action, however. As the report also points out, developing countries have pointed to observing networks and forecasting as their top priorities when it comes to improving climate services. While such investment will protect livelihoods and pay for itself many times over, it remains to be seen if it survives the battered finances countries face in the post-Covid era.
The ideas presented in this article aim to inspire adaptation action – they are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Global Center on Adaptation.
