Under the Africa Adaptation Acceleration Program, the Global Center on Adaptation is supporting national-level assessments and adaptation options analysis, demonstrating that investing in proactive climate adaptation is a key strategy to safeguard long-term growth, macroeconomic stability, and resilient development pathways across countries.

This report focused on Malawi, Climate Stress Test: Cascading Socioeconomic Impacts and Adaptation Policy Pathways, developed by the Global Center on Adaptation with KnowlEdge, Zutari, and the International Institute for Sustainable Development, uses an integrated system dynamics modelling approach (Green Economic Model – GEM) to assess how climate-informed investment choices shape economic, social, and environmental outcomes over time. The analysis, done in 2025 for Malawi, Tanzania and Mozambique, links climate risks to infrastructure and productive capital, and translates adaptation decisions into macroeconomic impacts, including GDP growth, employment, and fiscal performance under multiple scenarios.

This rapid analytical screening shows that proactive adaptation delivers strong and measurable economic gains in Malawi. Compared to inaction, early investments in climate resilience improve annual GDP growth, strengthen job creation, and enhance productivity across key sectors, while reducing long-term economic losses. The proactive adaptation pathway generates a Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR) of 2.67, a payback time within 10 years, and net benefits of USD 1.8 billion. 
Overall, the findings confirm that climate adaptation is not only a resilience strategy, but also a macroeconomic policy lever that supports sustainable growth, protects public and private investment, and strengthens long-term development outcomes. Further stakeholder consultation will be an important next step to tailor illustrative policy implications to national priorities and action plans, and to support mobilization of related financing, as highlighted in the discussion sections.